## 1 in 8,333 Americans

What’s the chance of finding a 47-year-old man who can finish a half marathon race? Based on “the largest study of race results in history,” you would have to go through eight thousand American men before you found him. (The State of Running 2019)

The bar chart shows North America (US) distribution of half marathon runners at 30%. The US population in 2018 was 326,971,407 and .001 were US runners. Thus, the total number of US runners was 326,971 and the number of half marathoners was 98,091.

## Male Age Distribution

As the line graph shows, the male age distribution peaks at 40. Approximately 40% of males are age 47 or older. Thus, 39,237 half-marathon runners are 47 or older. When you divide this number by the total US population, it’s only .00012.

Therefore, 1 in 8,333 Americans is a half marathoner age 47 or older.

## Finishing Time

If this 47-year-old male runner finishes a half-marathon in 2 hours 4 minutes and 27 seconds (9:30 pace), he is faster than 67.36% of all runners. (calculator)

However, Brian Kondas ran faster. He finished his first marathon in 1 hour 54 minutes and 24 seconds. Thus, he is faster than 82.38% of all runners and 83% faster than male runners ages 40 – 49.

## Sub-1:55:00 Half Marathoner

Based on my first half marathon performance of 1:54:24, the group of runners who can run 13.1 miles at or faster than me is 18% of all half marathoners (39,237 * .18 = 7,062). So, there are about 7,000 half marathoners in the US who can run under 1:55:00. As a percentage of the US population, that’s .000022 or 1 in 46,300 people.

However, my fastest half marathon is 1:51:12. This speed puts in an even smaller group at 14% of all half marathoners (39,237 * .14 = 5,493). Thus, less than 5,500 half marathons in the US can run 1:51:00.

My half marathon speed as a percentage of the US population is .000017 or 1 in 59,523 people.